Managerial stability and longevity are both boons for Premier League clubs, and Newcastle United have to weight that against some real warning signs under the watch of boss Eddie Howe.
With a stale attack and a too-open defense, Can Eddie Howe going to adapt or is he on the path to another bittersweet exit from a club he improved so well?
Howe restored Newcastle to respectability following the too-long and oh-so-painful reign of Steve Bruce, twice qualifying the Magpies for the UEFA Champions League and ending the club's ages-long wait for a trophy as he engineered a League Cup triumph over Liverpool last Spring.
MORE — Newcastle 2-3 Brentford: recap, highlights, Howe’s reaction
But the Magpies are losing regularly and have failed to take advantage of a wide-open Premier League table. The club's sleepy, unambitious performances across two legs of the League Cup semifinals versus Manchester City were not only head scratchers but question askers — In what direction is Howe driving this vehicle? Is the PIF-owned club ambitious for every trophy on show or content with a roller coaster ride? With a pair of winnable Champions League playoff legs with Qarabag ahead, it seems unlikely that change is coming any time soon but should Newcastle be considering their boss’ future over the next few weeks?
Howe is Newcastle's most successful manager since Bobby Robson left the club in 2004, and only three current Premier League managers have been in their jobs longer than the 48-year-old Englishman (Marco Silva, Mikel Arteta, Pep Guardiola).
Yet Howe was also Bournemouth's best manager ever and he left the Cherries in August 2020 in a similar sort of fog to the one hanging over the Magpies right now. What did he learn from that? Can he fix what ails his current team? And how long should Newcastle wait for him to do so?
Cause Howe is still young and he's brought the club silverware. But is he in a rut or a crevasse?
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle slip-sliding to another Europe-free season
Presuming the Magpies fail to win the UEFA Champions League, their two remaining routes to Europe are winning the FA Cup and finding their way to fifth on the Premier League table.
Aston Villa's up next in the FA Cup while Newcastle are well-positioned to reach the Round of 16 in the UCL but far from favorites to even reach the quarterfinals. As for the league, he Magpies are 10 points off fifth and 11 off fourth. Heck, their three points behind heated rivals Sunderland in their promotion season. It's not been great. And yes the Champions League asks a lot of its participants but this is different from the last UCL rodeo where Howe's men were underfunded and unprepared for that gauntlet.
The Magpies have four PL wins since the calendar turned to December, two over 19th-place Burnley and one each over bottom-half Leeds and Crystal Palace. They've been swept by Brentford, lost at promoted rivals Sunderland, and scored just one goal over 180 minutes agains 20th-place, defense-optional Wolves (while claiming four points, it must be said). A loss at then-reeling West Ham and scoreless draw at Leeds weren't acceptable either.
There are some good signs: The Magpies are fifth in average possession, fourth in xGA, 1st in corners, and 1st in crosses completion percentage.
But Howe's men are mid-table in so many categories this season (via Opta):
- 9th in goals per game
- 12th in goals conceded per game
- 10th in expected goals
- 9th in through balls
- 13th in shot conversion percentage
- 8th in touches in the box
For a team to have so much of the ball but so much trouble turning it into true danger begs the question of not just how Howe uses his attackers but also whether the players know what to do in the final third.
Howe was the Footbal League's Manager of the Decade in 2015 and is unequivocally a very good leader. Clubs have to be very wary of moving on from anyone who has become part of the furniture unless they have a clear-cut answer to improve in the dugout.
Is Howe’s Newcastle a stale recurrence, or just unlucky?
Newcastle and Bournemouth are two very different clubs at two very different ends of England, and Howe triumphed over that comparison once before as he built the more-established Newcastle into a winner as a step-up in class.
But right now, it feels like Howe's Newcastle have reached a hurdle too high and the stats show a stagnant team that has succeeded via talent at times but too often are trying to jam old solutions past new questions.
To be frank, it seems stale. But is it?
Howe's long tenure at Bournemouth ended after his fifth Premier League season, as the special sauce that saw him guide the Cherries to safety upon promotion and a ninth place finish in Year Two ran dry as they slipped down to the table from 12th to 14th to 18th.
He earned praise from fellow managers for playing an open game as they perennial found enough answers to overcome being one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Bournemouth couldn't rally new ideas or bed in enough new stars and club heroes Steve Cook, Adam Smith, Simon Francis, Ryan Fraser, Joshua King, and Charlie Daniels were among those who hit a proverbial wall.
Howe's got a lot more talent now and a lot more games on his docket, but the one similarity is that his men are having trouble out-scoring their defensive mistakes. The Magpies have the fourth-stingiest xGA team with 29.4
Heading into this week, Newcastle had produced midtable numbers in terms of offense in the Premier League: 33 goals off of 35.17 xG. They had also conceded 5.53 more goals than their xGA total of 27.47. In a league of fine margins, Howe might argue that his team has been unlucky to be on the losing end.
After all, they've dominated xG and dropped points several times this season including:
- Week 1: 0-0 draw at Villa (+1.08 xG)
- Week 2: 3-2 loss vs Liverpool (+1.31 xG)
- Week 10: 3-1 loss at West Ham (+0.89 xG)
- Week 11: 3-1 loss at Brentford (+2.31 xG)
- Week 17: 2-2 draw vs Chelsea (+1.85 xG)
- Saturday: 3-2 loss vs Brentford (+1.67 xG)
There are also a few questions regarding the team's depth and some failures from big names. Howe's been known to be faithful to his favorites dating back to Bournemouth, and he's yet to either trust or figure out to use new faces Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey while continuing to roll out a struggling Anthony Gordon whenever healthy. Gordon has been poor in the Premier League this season and Kieran Trippier seems to have finally lost that last step at right back (he was arguably the reason for Saturday's loss).
Injuries to Joelinton, Lewis Miley, and Bruno Guimaraes have also sapped the strength of the team — the midfield — while mainstay Sandro Tonali may have had his head turned back toward home in Italy.
Ultimately, the team does go as Guimaraes goes, which may feel like an indictment on Howe but is likely a glowing review of a player who probably could've angled for a move to a Barcelona, Manchester City, or Real Madrid long ago.
Guimaraes returned to the team after a two-match PL absence — both losses — on Saturday and flashed his brilliance again. He's a unicorn and the Magpies have never performed well without him; Since Guimaraes' PL debut in February 2022, Newcastle are 0W-5D-5L when he doesn't hit the pitch.
So this post isn't a "Howe out" post but it is more of a righteous call that Howe should be on notice. It doesn't help that Regis Le Bris is putting on a managerial master class across town and won the long-awaited return of the Tyne-Wear derby and that certainly amplified emotions as did Howe's decision to sleepwalk into the second leg of their cup defense versus City — a weakened City at that.
But this next month — and assuming logical outcomes, the rest of the season — should be a proper evaluation period for Newcastle's new leadership. Yes it's understandable that Newcastle have lost twice to Man City, once to Villa, once to Liverpool, and drawn PSG in a daunting 1W-2D-5L stretch across all competitions. And no, it's not getting easier with Spurs (PL), Villa (FA Cup), Qarabag (UCL), Man City (PL), and Qarabag (UCL) in a 15-day span beginning Tuesday that includes a 6500-mile roundtrip to Baku, Azerbaijan. But if Howe doesn't find a way to get the best of his attackers or to shore up his defense of counter-attacking teams, the Magpies may be better served thanking him for an incredible run and giving a new boss the summer to ready for a proper Premier League return for one of the richest clubs in the world.
Because it hasn't been good enough. If Howe is owning it, things will be fine. But if he's unable to unlock new solutions — he finally gave Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa some time together with Anthony Elanga and Harvey Barnes, on Saturday and it looked good —and cannot see what's ailing his team, then perhaps a parting of the ways will be mutually beneficial.
