Aston Villa and statistics have never really correlated this season, and that's without even getting onto the subject of xG.
At the start of the season, Opta rated Villa's opening six Premier League fixtures as the easiest in the division. On paper, it looked ideal. Villa needed to get out of the blocks quickly, to build points before European commitments began and a punishing Christmas schedule took hold.
The reality was starkly different. After five league matches, Villa were winless and sat in the relegation zone, finally recording their first win only at the sixth attempt.
At that stage, Villa were nowhere near the Champions League qualification conversation.
That rhetoric arrived later. Villa embarked on an extraordinary 11-game winning run, brushing aside all comers in the build-up to Christmas and even triggering talk of them being in the title race.
Throughout it all, Unai Emery consistently poured cold water on any title talk. At the peak of the run, he was unequivocal: "To speak about the title does not make sense for us. Now in December it does not make sense."
A month later, following Villa's first home defeat, after 11 straight wins at Villa Park, against Everton, Emery went further still, even casting doubt on Champions League qualification: “We are not contenders to be in the top five. We are still not being contenders.
"There are other teams with more potential than us."
The Opta supercomputer disagrees. It currently gives Villa a 95.9% chance of finishing in the top five, a figure that appears to ignore changing on-pitch reality. Villa's points buffer is steadily eroding, with Manchester United now just three points behind Villa in third.
The reality aligns far more closely with Emery's caution than Opta's confidence. Villa's engine room has been ripped out. The captain, John McGinn, is injured, alongside two of the side's most influential players, Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara.
As Villa hinted away at Bournemouth, the resolve still exists within the team that formed the backbone of their early-season success. Patched up by the January transfer window, Emery’s side look ready for the unpredictable battle ahead, one that Opta will certainly have little insight into.
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