Table of Contents
We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Man City prediction and preview. Can the reigning champions get the better of Pep Guardiola’s challengers?
Liverpool vs Man City: The Key Stats
- With a 43% win likelihood, Liverpool are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites, with Manchester City given a 30.3% chance of taking the three points at Anfield.
- Liverpool have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League home games against Man City (W14 D7), with that defeat coming the only time they hosted them as reigning champions (1-4 in February 2021).
- Erling Haaland has failed to score in all three of his Premier League away games against Liverpool.
Liverpool vs Manchester City has, for much of the past decade, been the go-to fixture in the Premier League calendar.
Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola forged one of the great rivalries of the Premier League era, with their teams duelling it out at the top in some titanic tussles.
This season, however, it is perhaps not quite the all-on-the-line clash it has been.
Liverpool beat Man City home and away (winning 2-0 on each occasion) en route to winning their second Premier League title last season, as Guardiola’s side dropped out of the title race entirely.
Ahead of Sunday’s clash at Anfield, it is City who are targeting a league double over the Reds.
And while City are not storming their way to the title in the way Liverpool did last season, they are still in the mix. Their 2-2 draw at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last week, which came after they gave up a 2-0 lead, means they head into the weekend six points behind league leaders Arsenal, although the gap could be nine points by the time this game rolls around.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have endured a miserable title defence. They sit sixth, 14 points off the Gunners, though they did at least bounce back from a last-gasp defeat to Bournemouth by thrashing Newcastle United 4-1 last time out to claim their first league win of 2026.
Coincidentally, City also go into this game on the back of a win over Newcastle, that one coming in the EFL Cup semi-finals as Guardiola’s men teed up a Wembley showdown with Arsenal next month.
Liverpool went into their meeting with Newcastle on the back of a five-game winless streak in the league, which was their worst such run since 2021. And matters looked like they could get worse for Arne Slot as the Magpies dominated the opening 30 minutes before taking the lead through Anthony Gordon.
Yet Liverpool hit back in style. In-form Florian Wirtz brilliantly teed up Hugo Ekitiké to equalise, and the Frenchman doubled his tally two minutes later with an exquisite finish.
Wirtz made it 3-1 midway through the second half, before Ibrahima Konaté bundled home late on to add further gloss.
Liverpool do have a predilection for a comeback; since the start of last season, only three teams have picked up more points from losing positions in the Premier League than them (28), while only Brighton & Hove Albion (42) have scored more goals in games they’ve conceded the first goal than the Reds (41).
And although Liverpool’s wobble earlier this season all but ruined their chances of defending their crown (from MD6 to MD12, Liverpool lost more Premier League games than any other club – P7 W1 L6), they have proved difficult to beat since then. In fact, since MD13, no side have lost fewer games than them (P12 W5 D6 L1).
There is a strong possibility Liverpool have to come from behind again this weekend, given City are the only Premier League side in 2026 who have not conceded a single first-half goal, scoring six times themselves.
However, City are also the only side who have not scored a second-half goal since the turn of the year, conceding six goals in the second period.
Meanwhile, only Liverpool (nine) and Manchester United (seven) have won more away games against reigning Premier League champions than City (six), who have won five of their last six such outings (L1).
However, one player who has not thrived at the home of the current reigning champions is Erling Haaland.
The Norwegian goal machine has failed to score in all three of his Premier League away games against Liverpool. Anfield is one of just two grounds he has played at in the Premier League without scoring, along with Sunderland’s Stadium of Light.
Haaland had to settle for a substitute appearance against Newcastle, as he came on to replace Antoine Semenyo, who does have previous at Anfield. The winger, on four goals in six City appearances, netted twice for Bournemouth in a 4-2 defeat at Liverpool in the opening game of the campaign.
Semenyo is not the only attacking force Liverpool will have to contend with, of course. Only Bruno Fernandes (3.4) has created more chances per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season than Rayan Cherki (3.0). It is the most by a player in their debut season (min. 1,000 mins played) since Emiliano Buendía in 2019-20 for Norwich City (also 3.0).
Liverpool have their own in-form attackers, though.
Hugo Ekitiké has scored or assisted every 112 minutes in the Premier League this season (10 goals, two assists in 1,342 minutes), the best rate by a Liverpool player in their first season at the club since Mohamed Salah in 2017-18 (32 goals, 10 assists – one every 70 minutes).
His double against Newcastle took him to 10 Premier League goals this season; at 23 years and 225 days, he became the youngest Liverpool player to reach double figures in a top-flight campaign since Michael Owen in 2000-01 (21y 138d).
Behind Ekitiké, Wirtz is finally flourishing in a red shirt as well.
Since 20 December, when he set up Alexander Isak against Tottenham Hotspur, Wirtz has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player in all competitions (nine – six goals, three assists).
Furthermore, Wirtz and Ekitiké have combined for six goals in the Premier League this term, more than any other duo.
Liverpool vs Man City Head-to-Head
Liverpool have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League home games against City.
Following their 3-0 win at the Etihad in November, though, City are looking to complete their first league double over Liverpool since 1936-37, which was also the last time they won consecutive league games against them.
In fact, the last team to beat Liverpool twice to nil in the same Premier League campaign was West Ham United in 2015-16.
Liverpool vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool the favourites, with a 43% win probability.
However, City are given a 30.3% likelihood of coming away from Anfield with maximum points. The draw is at 26.7%.
City have just a 5.9% chance of winning the Premier League title, and although Guardiola has stressed there is plenty of time remaining this term, they must also begin to take chances to catch up with Arsenal when they do present themselves.
Liverpool vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson, Dominik Szoboszlai, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitiké.
Head coach: Arne Slot
Man City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly, Rodri, Tijjani Reijnders, Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday at Anfield, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
