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We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction and preview. The Black Cats earned a draw in the reverse fixture, but can they halt the Gunners again?
Arsenal vs Sunderland: The Key Stats
- Unbeaten at home to Sunderland in the Premier League, the Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a huge 79.6% chance of claiming maximum points here.
- Sunderland have lost 17 and won just one of their last 28 league meetings with Arsenal – that sole success was in November 2009.
- The Gunners are undefeated in 43 home games against promoted clubs (W38 D5), which is the joint-longest run in Premier League history – Chelsea also reached that tally between 2001 and 2015.
Having moved two steps closer to a potential quadruple in the last week, Arsenal will seek a third win in eight days when they welcome Sunderland to north London on Saturday.
As well as still being in the Champions League and FA Cup, the Gunners are six points clear at the Premier League summit after thrashing Leeds last week while closest challengers Manchester City and Aston Villa both dropped points.
They then also reached the EFL Cup final with a 1-0 win (4-2 on aggregate) against Chelsea on Tuesday.
History is waiting to be written, with the club still fighting on four fronts, but a first top-flight title since 2004 is perhaps the most coveted prize of all.
Next month’s EFL Cup showpiece will be their first final since lifting the FA Cup back in 2020, and victory could set the tone for an action-packed run-in. They can’t afford to look too far ahead, though.
Last week’s 4-0 victory over Leeds United ended a three-match winless streak in the Premier League, and laid down a marker as Arsenal posted five away wins in a single month for just the second time in their history.
They quietened a fervent Elland Road as they took some familiar routes to goal. Following first-half strikes from Martín Zubimendi and Noni Madueke, they’ve scored the joint-most headers in this season’s Premier League (10 – level with Tottenham), and they continue to excel from set-pieces.
Including Madueke’s direct effort against Leeds, Arsenal have also scored the most goals from corners (14), already leaving them just two shy of the best total in an entire Premier League campaign (16 by Oldham in 1992-93, West Brom in 2016-17, and themselves two years ago).
It would be no surprise, then, if Régis Le Bris has spent much of this week drilling his defence in how to deal with set-pieces, as Sunderland prepare for one of the top flight’s toughest away days.
The Black Cats bounced back from defeat to relegation-threatened West Ham by beating Burnley 3-0 on Monday, extending a tremendous record at the Stadium of Light.
Their visitors recorded no attempts on target, as Sunderland followed an early own-goal with strikes from Habib Diarra – whose deflected shot had led to the opener – and a stunning goal from Chemsdine Talbi.
Sitting eighth in the table – making them unexpected contenders for Europe – last term’s Championship play-off winners remain unbeaten at home in the Premier League. Remarkably, that’s the longest streak at the start of a top-tier campaign by any promoted side since Nottingham Forest went the whole 1977-78 season without losing on home turf.
However, there’s a distinct disparity with their fortunes on the road; a grim record of two wins and six goals scored from 12 away games tells its own tale.
So, although Arsenal dramatically lost their last Premier League home fixture to Manchester United, they’ll expect to avoid consecutive league defeats at the Emirates – that last occurred in April 2022.
Sunderland are sure to come under more pressure this weekend. Only two teams have faced more shots in the Premier League (337), yet the Black Cats have conceded the joint-third fewest goals (26).
The stellar contribution of Robin Roefs explains that. The Dutch goalkeeper has made the third-most saves (76), has the second-best save percentage (74.3%) and boasts the joint-fifth most clean sheets (eight) of any goalkeeper in England’s top tier.
As for team news, Arsenal utility man Mikel Merino could be sidelined for an extended period with a foot injury. Captain Martin Ødegaard was absent in midweek, and Bukayo Saka also did not feature against Chelsea after withdrawing from the warm-up at Leeds last weekend.
Still, Kai Havertz has recently made a feel-good comeback, while Viktor Gyökeres seems to be finding his feet. The Swedish striker has registered four goals from his last six appearances and is now Arsenal’s top scorer across all competitions with 11. Furthermore, four of Gyokeres’ six Premier League strikes have come against promoted clubs: three versus Leeds, and one against Burnley.
Sunderland’s chief concern is the continued absence of their inspirational captain, ex-Arsenal skipper Granit Xhaka. The Swiss midfielder has been missed since suffering an ankle injury, with his manager saying last week that he hopes to have him back around mid-February.
Arsenal vs Sunderland Head-to-Head
Brian Brobbey’s late leveller secured a 2-2 home draw for Sunderland in this season’s reverse fixture, but they’ve never won in 16 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D5 L11), only visiting Liverpool more often without a victory in the competition (17).
In fact, the Gunners are unbeaten in 18 top-flight home games against Sunderland (W13 D5) since a 2-1 loss at Highbury in 1983.
Home or away, the Black Cats have won just one of the last 28 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (D10 L17) – 1-0 at the Stadium of Light in November 2009.
Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction
Given Arsenal’s historical superiority and the fact they are top of the pile, it’s no surprise the Opta supercomputer rates their chance of success at 79.6%.
Rock solid on home soil, Sunderland tend to falter when away from Wearside, and the Black Cats won in just 8% of 10,000 pre-match simulations, with the remaining 12.4% being drawn.
Arsenal vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Dan Ballard, Omar Alderete, Reinildo Mandava, Lutsharel Geertruida, Noah Sadiki, Trai Hume, Chemsdine Talbi, Enzo Le Fée, Brian Brobbey.
Head coach: Régis Le Bris
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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