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Edinburgh derby preview
First league title in 66 years? Four graphs that illustrate Hearts’ unprecedented title challenge
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All eyes will be on Edinburgh tonight as Scottish football fans watch with keen interest when Hearts and Hibs lock horns at Tynecastle for the Edinburgh derby. Derek McInnes’ high-flying Jambos go into the clash with their cross-city rivals with just two defeats in their last 10 league games, but face an opposition that have dropped just four fewer points than them in that time. And with Hearts still riding high at the top of the Scottish Premiership table, three and six points ahead of Rangers and Celtic respectively, many football fans in Glasgow will be hoping to see Hibs cause an upset.
However, despite many suggesting otherwise, McInnes’ team have continued to upset the odds and remain on course for the club’s first league title since 1960 and should the Edinburgh club go on to win the Scottish Premiership this season, it’ll be the first time that the league title has gone to a club outside of Glasgow since Aberdeen won it in 1985. So what’s behind this truly historic title challenge from Hearts? Here at Transfermarkt we’ve run the numbers and have four graphs to illustrate and explain what has been an unprecedented run of form from the Georgie side.
Hearts know how to dominate games
Perhaps the most pertinent stat to consider – aside from the actual league table – is just how rare it is for Hearts to lose control of matches. As we can see in the first table, no other team in the Scottish Premiership have taken the lead in games this season than McInnes’ side and crucially they often tend to hold on to claim all three points. On 18 occasions when Hearts have taken the lead, the Jambos have gone on to win 16, drawn just two and so far failed to lose a single match. In stark contrast, current Scottish champions Celtic have also taken the lead on 18 occasions this season but gone on to draw once and lose twice – which explains why they sit four points behind Hearts in this metric.
And how to see out matches in the second half
Following on from that stat, it’ll also come as no surprise to learn that McInnes’ side are also league leaders when it comes to performances in the second half of games this season. While some teams look to blitz their opponents in the first half, Hearts have actually scored 60% of their goals in the second half of games and conceded just nine in that stage of the game. As such, the Edinburgh club have a goal difference of +19 in the second half of matches this season, higher than Rangers (+15) and considerably higher than Celtic (+7). Indeed, if the Scottish Premiership table was decided by second half performances this season, Hearts would actually be 10 points clear of second-placed Rangers and 13 points ahead of Celtic.
Outsmarting Celtic and Rangers off the pitch
As most Scottish football fans will know, Hearts recently joined a select group of clubs that Tony Bloom has invested in and as such the club’s spending in the transfer market rose to €4.7m and their net spend of €2.5m was the highest outlay in the transfer market in the last 10 seasons. However, despite those figures being sizable sums by Tynecastle standards it still pales in comparison to Celtic and Rangers. In total, McInnes’ squad cost a total of €5.4m to put together, which is considerably less than Rangers (€52.3m) and Celtic (€86.8m). And, as we can see in the graphic above, it means that Hearts have spent just €99k on transfer fees for every point won in the Scottish Premiership this season, which is a mere fraction of Rangers’ (€1.03m) and Celtic’s (€1.43m) return on their transfer window investments.
Fresh blood offers new opportunities
Of course, it’s one thing to spend money in the transfer market but another thing entirely to build a coherent team. And to McInnes’ credit, the Scottish tactician has made full use of the new signings scouted and signed in tandem with Bloom’s Jamestown analytics. As we can see in the table above, no less than five of McInnes’ most used players in the league this season only joined the club in the past six months. That includes typical signings, like Oisin McEntee or Stuart Findlay joining from English clubs, but also attacking flair players like Alexandros Kyziridis (four goals and six assists in the league) and Cláudio Braga (10 goals and four assist) from clubs in Slovakia and Norway respectively. As such, Hearts have found the perfect blend of reliable Scottish Premiership players and talented imports from across Europe to build a squad that could go on to make history in just a few months time.
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